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When Vladimir Putin traveled to the South Asian nation four years ago, the global landscape was markedly different. The brief visit, curtailed by the global health crisis, focused on discussions on economic and military ties between the two leaders.

Not long after, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine would transform the Russian leader into a global pariah, significantly restricting his overseas engagements.

Furthermore, that era came before a major change in US-India relations, marked by contentious rhetoric and the imposition of substantial trade tariffs.

"Against this backdrop, the importance of this diplomatic mission to engage with the Indian PM is profound, serving as a signal of resilient relations and a rejection of external pressure," experts emphasize.

A Pivotal Moment for Two Major Powers

The summit occurs at a crucial time. President Putin arrives after rejecting recent diplomatic initiatives for Ukraine, bolstered by claimed gains by Russian forces.

"From Moscow's perspective, the key significance of this visit is its very occurrence," commented a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It indicates a return to something resembling routine global diplomacy."

From Delhi's standpoint, the risks are particularly elevated. The country navigates a challenging geopolitical climate, characterized by a semi-isolationist United States, a weakened Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

This delicate balance was highlighted just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats published a joint opinion piece criticizing Russia's commitment to peace. This elicited a sharp response from Indian officials, who called it an unacceptable interference.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The historical partnership dates back to the Cold War era and remains firmly rooted, with Moscow long being Delhi's top arms provider. This relationship was generally accepted by the West until a change in approach.

For years, Western nations overlooked India's large-scale buying of cheap energy from Russia. Yet, recently stalled diplomacy, accusations mounted, leading to punitive tariffs and a significant downturn in US-India ties.

"In response, India has returned to its default strategy of 'hedging'," explained a strategic analyst. "It signals to the US that it has other choices and is waiting to see how the situation unfolds."

Apart from global diplomacy, India's fundamental concern with Russia is geography. "Beijing remains the primary security challenge to India, and historically, India has relied on Russia as a counterweight against China," the analyst stated.

The deepening Moscow-Beijing axis has caused concern in Delhi, prompting efforts to avoid an unbreakable bond between its adversary and its longtime partner.

This concern has also spurred India's drive to diversify its military imports, decreasing its reliance on Russian equipment from about 70% to under 40% in recent years.

"Delhi will try to strike a balance: purchase enough Russian arms to maintain the alliance, but not become overly reliant that a sudden cutoff would leave it vulnerable," the analyst remarked.

The Oil Question

Enhanced economic cooperation is likely to be a major topic. The Russian leader has recently emphasized plans to take cooperation with India to a "qualitatively new level", in spite of Western sanctions.

The issue of crude oil imports remains central. While the Indian government has stated to keep buying Russian oil, new sanctions have slowed activity from the private sector. Simultaneously, India has agreed to boost imports of US energy.

A Kremlin spokesperson acknowledged "obstacles" in energy trade but said it would continue uninterrupted. The official minimized the impact of sanctions, stating they would cause only "insignificant" and "brief" drops and that Russia possesses the "means" to bypass such measures.

Limited Leverage on Ukraine

As talks proceed, the topic of Ukraine is likely to be mentioned primarily through India's consistent appeal for a peaceful resolution.

"While the Indian leader has access to all parties, the nation lacks the diplomatic clout to significantly influence the conflict," the analyst noted. "Aside from encouraging talks, its capacity to make a difference is constrained."

Ultimately, notwithstanding the visible friendship between the two leaders, the partnership is fundamentally one of "pragmatic strategic interest," driven by cold calculation in a volatile world.